| 陈玉梅,耿畅,刘建军,赵铁峰.基于 GIS和逻辑回归模型的区域地质灾害风险评价——以惠济区重点调查区为例[J].矿产勘查,2025,16(4):888-897 |
| 基于 GIS和逻辑回归模型的区域地质灾害风险评价——以惠济区重点调查区为例 |
| Regional geohazard risk assessment based on GIS and logistic regression model: A case study of the key investigation area of Huiji District |
| 投稿时间：2023-05-04 |
| DOI：10.20008/j.kckc.202504019 |
| 中文关键词: 地质灾害 风险评价 逻辑回归 地理信息系统 |
| 英文关键词: geological disaster riskassessment logistic regression geographic information system |
| 基金项目:本文受河南省自然资源厅“2021年度中央财政自然灾害防治体系建设补助资金项目”(豫地灾项目〔2021〕49号)资助。 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 郑州市惠济区受 2021年“7·20”极端暴雨影响，地质灾害频发，为减少地质灾害造成的损失，亟待对郑州市惠济区开展地质灾害风险评价。本文基于地理信息系统分析和逻辑回归模型，以 20 m栅格为单元，选取 6个因子作为自变量因子，实现地质灾害易发性评价；后叠加降雨量完成危险性评价；对各类承灾体易损性进行赋值叠加，获得综合易损性评价；最后，通过危险性和易损性叠加运算，实现了惠济区重点调查区地质灾害风险评价。结果表明:随着降雨频率的增加，高风险区面积随之增加，由原来的 1.30 km2增加到 3.76 km2，主要高风险区域为黄河桥村、孙庄村。通过地质灾害风险评价为地方政府的防灾减灾管理、国土空间规划和用途管制等提供了基础依据。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Under the influence of the "July 20" extreme rainstorm in 2021, Huiji District of Zhengzhou Citysuffered from frequent geological disasters. In order to reduce the losses caused by geological disasters, it is urgentto carry out geological disaster risk assessment for Huiji District of Zhengzhou City. Based on geographic informa-tion system analysis and logistic regression model, this paper takes 20 m grid as unit and selects 6 factors as inde-pendent variables to evaluate the vulnerability of geological disasters. After the superimposed rainfall to completethe risk assessment; The vulnerability of all kinds of disaster bearing bodies was assigned and superimposed to ob-tain comprehensive vulnerability evaluation. Finally, the geological hazard risk assessment of key survey areas inHuiji District is realized through the superposition calculation of risk and vulnerability. The results showed that withthe increase of rainfall frequency, the area of high risk area increased from 1.30 km2 to 3.76 km2, and the main highrisk areas were Huangheqiao Village and Sunzhuang Village. Geological hazard risk assessment provides a basis forlocal government′s disaster prevention and reduction management, territorial space planning and use control. |
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