| 安天浩,王幻,郭牧凡,熊靓辉.中国锡产业浅析[J].矿产勘查,2025,16(5):1256-1264 |
| 中国锡产业浅析 |
| A brief analysis of China's tin industry |
| 投稿时间：2025-03-12 |
| DOI：10.20008/j.kckc.202505029 |
| 中文关键词: 锡资源储量 进口依存度 技术瓶颈 新兴需求 资源安全治理中图分类号:F407.1文献标志码:A文章编号:1674-7801(2025)05-1256-09 |
| 英文关键词: Tin resource reserves import dependency technological bottlenecks emerging demand resource security governance |
| 基金项目:本文受中国工程院战略研究与咨询项目“保障我国矿产资源安全的政策研究(2022-XZ-39)”资助。 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 针对近年中国锡产业资源保障弱化、供应链风险加剧及结构性失衡问题，本文基于 USGS、中国有色金属工业协会及 ITA数据，采用产业链分析法与供需平衡模型展开研究。结果表明:(1)锡资源危机凸显，锡矿储量从 2014年的 150万 t锐减至 2024年的 100万 t，全球占比由 31.3%降至 23.8%，叠加 2013—2022锡勘查投入 10 a缩减 70%及 2023—2024年零新增矿权等因素，静态开采年限不足 10 a；(2)供应链高度脆弱，进口依存度高，而缅甸政策扰动导致 2024年进口量同比暴跌 47.9%；(3)产业结构割裂，冶炼产能过剩，但高端产品(如 5N级锡)严重依赖进口，下游新兴需求未能有效承接。为此提出三维治理路径:资源端加大深地勘查与境外并购、技术端突破高端产品国产化、制度端构建多元进口体系，以实现从“产量大国”向“锡业强国”的战略转型。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| This study addresses the recent challenges of weakened resource security, intensified supply chainrisks, and structural imbalances in China's tin industry. Based on data from the USGS (2025), China Nonferrous Met.als Industry Association (2024), and ITA (2024), we employed industrial chain analysis and supply-demand equilib.rium modeling to conduct our research. The results reveal: (1) A prominent resource crisis, with tin reserves plum.meting from 1.5 million tonnes in 2014 to 1 million tonnes in 2024, causing China's global share to drop from 31.3%to 23.8%. Factors contributing to a 70% reduction in tin exploration investment over a ten-year period from 2013 tO2022 and zero new mining rights granted during 2023-2024, the static mine life now falls below 10 years; (2) Highlyfragile supply chains characterized by heavy import dependence, with Myanmar's policy disruptions triggering a47.9% year-on-year plunge in China's 2024 tin imports; (3) Fragmented industrial structure featuring excess smelt. ing capacity alongside severe import reliance on high-end products (e.g., 5N-grade tin), while emerging downstreamdemand remains inadequately met. To address these issues, we propose a three-dimensional governance pathway:enhancing deep-earth exploration and overseas acquisitions in resources; achieving breakthroughs in domestic pro.duction of high-end technologies; and establishing a diversified import system institutionally. This integrated strat.egy aims to facilitate China's strategic transition from a 'volume power' to a 'tin industry powerhouse'. |
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