| 周一文,马丙太,赵德刚,张益豪,梁爽,汪洋,郝印博,张佳楠,刘敏.区域岩溶塌陷灾害易发性评价方法研究——以唐山市中心区为例[J].矿产勘查,2026,17(4):734-742 |
| 区域岩溶塌陷灾害易发性评价方法研究——以唐山市中心区为例 |
| Study on the evaluation methodology for susceptibility to regional karst collapse disasters: A case study of the central district of Tangshan City |
| 投稿时间：2024-08-26 |
| DOI：10.20008/j.kckc.202604015 |
| 中文关键词: 岩溶塌陷 层次分析法 易发性评价 GIS 唐山市中心区 |
| 英文关键词: karst collapse analytic hierarchy method susceptibility assessment GIS central district of Tang. shan City |
| 基金项目:本文受河北省地质环境监测院“河北省地质资源环境监测与保护重点实验室项目(JCYKT201912)”资助。 |
| 作者 | 单位 | | 周一文 | 河北省地质资源环境监测与保护重点实验室,河北石家庄 050021
河北省地质环境监测院,河北石家庄 050021 | | 马丙太 | 河北省地质资源环境监测与保护重点实验室,河北石家庄 050021
河北省地质环境监测院,河北石家庄 050021 | | 赵德刚 | 河北省地质资源环境监测与保护重点实验室,河北石家庄 050021
河北省地质环境监测院,河北石家庄 050021 | | 张益豪 | 河北省地质环境监测院,河北石家庄 050021 | | 梁爽 | 河北省地质资源环境监测与保护重点实验室,河北石家庄 050021
河北省地质环境监测院,河北石家庄 050021 | | 汪洋 | 河北省地质资源环境监测与保护重点实验室,河北石家庄 050021
河北省地质环境监测院,河北石家庄 050021 | | 郝印博 | 河北省地质环境监测院,河北石家庄 050021 | | 张佳楠 | 河北省地质环境监测院,河北石家庄 050021 | | 刘敏 | 河北省地质环境监测院,河北石家庄 050021 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 岩溶塌陷受多因素影响，具有突发性和空间分布差异性特征，探索符合区域实际的岩溶塌陷易发性评价方法，对塌陷防治具重要意义。本文以唐山市中心区为研究对象，选取岩溶发育程度、距构造距离、第四系土层厚度、岩溶水位变幅、地下水开采强度、岩溶水与基岩面关系、双层水位、岩溶发育密度 8项因子构建塌陷易发性评价指标体系，选取共线性诊断与相关性分析方法检验指标间独立性，运用层次分析法开展岩溶塌陷易发性评价。结果表明:8项诱发指标间无相关性，可参与岩溶塌陷易发性评价；研究区高易发区、中易发区、较低易发区面积及占比分别为 3.36 km2(10.53%)、11.40 km2低易发区、(7.39%)、4.79 km2(25.05%)、 (57.03%)25.95 km2层次分析法模型评价结果经受试者操作特性曲线(Receiver Operating Char. acteristic Curve，ROC)检验，线下面积(Area Under Curve，AUC值)=0.9107，评价结果预测精度较高，分区结果可为研究区岩溶塌陷防治工作提供基础参考及辅助预警监测。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Karst collapse is influenced by multiple factors and is characterized by suddenness and spatial dis.tribution variability. Exploring a susceptibility evaluation method for karst collapse that aligns with regional condi.tions is of significant importance for collapse prevention and control. Taking the central district of Tangshan City asthe study area, eight factors were selected to construct a susceptibility evaluation index system: degree of karst de.velopment, distance to tectonic structures, soil thickness, variation amplitude of karst water level, intensity ofgroundwater extraction, relationship between karst water and bedrock surface, dual water levels, and density of karstdevelopment. Collinearity diagnosis and correlation analysis methods were employed to test the independence of theindicators, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was applied to evaluate the susceptibility to karst collapse.The results indicate that the eight inducing factors are uncorrelated and can be used in the susceptibility evaluation.The areas and proportions of high, medium, low, and relatively low susceptibility zones in the study area are 3.36km2 (7.39%), 4.79 km2 (10.53%), 11.40 km2 (25.05%), and 25.95 km2 (57.03%), respectively. The AHP modelevaluation results were validated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC), with an Area UnderCurve (AUC) value of 0.9107, indicating high predictive accuracy. The zoning results can provide a foundational ref.erence and assist in early warning and monitoring for karst collapse prevention and control in the study area. |
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