| 周一文,赵德刚,马丙太,梁爽,郝印博,汪洋,叶莹莹.区域地质灾害易发性及危险性定量评价方法研究——以迁安市为例[J].矿产勘查,2026,17(7):1252-1261 |
| 区域地质灾害易发性及危险性定量评价方法研究——以迁安市为例 |
| Study on the regional eological hazards susceptibility and risk assessment: A case study of Qian'an City |
| 投稿时间：2024-05-28 |
| DOI：10.20008/j.kckc.202607012 |
| 中文关键词: CF-AHP耦合模型 易发性评价 降雨工况 危险性评价 迁安市 |
| 英文关键词: the CF-AHP model susceptibility evaluation rainfall condition risk assessment Qian′an City |
| 基金项目:本文受河北省地质资源环境监测与保护重点实验室项目(JCYKT202406)资助。 |
| 作者 | 单位 | | 周一文 | 河北省地质资源环境监测与保护重点实验室,河北石家庄 050021
河北省地质环境监测院,河北石家庄 050021 | | 赵德刚 | 河北省地质资源环境监测与保护重点实验室,河北石家庄 050021
河北省地质环境监测院,河北石家庄 050021 | | 马丙太 | 河北省地质资源环境监测与保护重点实验室,河北石家庄 050021
河北省地质环境监测院,河北石家庄 050021 | | 梁爽 | 河北省地质资源环境监测与保护重点实验室,河北石家庄 050021
河北省地质环境监测院,河北石家庄 050021 | | 郝印博 | 河北省地质资源环境监测与保护重点实验室,河北石家庄 050021
河北省地质环境监测院,河北石家庄 050021 | | 汪洋 | 河北省地质资源环境监测与保护重点实验室,河北石家庄 050021
河北省地质环境监测院,河北石家庄 050021 | | 叶莹莹 | 河北省地质资源环境监测与保护重点实验室,河北石家庄 050021
河北省地质环境监测院,河北石家庄 050021 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 降雨是诱发崩滑流等地质灾害主要诱发因素之一，基于降雨条件开展地质灾害危险性评价，可为后续防灾工作开展提供依据。本文以迁安市为研究对象，选取工程地质岩组、地貌、高程、坡度、坡向、NDVI、距断裂构造距离、距道路距离、距河流距离等 9项因子组建评价指标体系，运用确定性系数与层次分析法(CF-AHP)耦合评价模型对研究区进行地质灾害易发性评价，降雨作为危险性评价重要指标，通过计算与皮尔逊 III型曲线求解研究区 10 a一遇、20 a一遇、50 a一遇和 100 a一遇 4种工况下降雨值，将易发结果叠加不同降雨工况开展危险性评价。统计表明:按自然断点法将易发性结果划分非、低、中、高 4个等级，经 ROC曲线精度验证其 AUC值为 88.03％；结合研究区实际，划分危险性为低、中、高 3个等级，探讨评价了 4种降雨工况下危险性结果。评价结果与研究区实际吻合度较高，评价方法高效可行，可为防灾减灾工作提供参考。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Rainfall is one of the important factors that induce geological disasters such as landslides and col-lapses,and the risk assessment of geologic hazards based on rainfall conditions provides a basis for subsequent disas-ter prevention work. This article takes Qian′an City as the study area, 9 evaluation factors including engineering geo-logical rock group, landform type, elevation, slope, aspect, NDVI, distance from structures, distance from roads, dis-tance from rivers, were selected. Using coupled Evaluation Model of Uncertainty Factor and Hierarchy AnalysisMethod (CF-AHP) to carry out susceptibility assessment of geologic hazards in the study area, Then select rainfallas the risk assessment factor. Predicting the rainfall of the study area once in 10 years, once in 20 years, once in 50years, once in 100 years through calculation and P-III curve, Pearson′s type III curve to solve the rainfall values ofthe study area under the four conditions of one in ten years, one in twenty years, one in fifty years and one in onehundred years, and superimpose the results of the susceptibility to rainfall under different conditions to carry out theevaluation of the risk. The statistics show that: according to the natural breakpoint method, the susceptibility resultsare classified into four grades: non-, low, medium and high, and the AUC value is 88.03% as verified by the accu-racy of the ROC curve; the hazard evaluation is classified into three grades: low, medium, high, and the results ofthe evaluation of the hazards under the four conditions are discussed and analyzed. The evaluation results are ingood agreement with the actual situation in the study area, which is efficient and feasible and can be used as a refer-ence for disaster prevention. |
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